You really want an iPad now?

Brett Arends, writing in The Wall Street Journal, says he doesn't want one. Here are a few of his reasons.

1. It'll be cheaper next year.
How dumb are people? Apple is coming out with iPad II in 2011. (Mr. Cordwell predicts April.) That means fanatics won't be seen dead with this year's model, and you'll be able to get it much cheaper. Try eBay or buy it "refurbished" direct from Apple. Price deflation in technology is a wonder to behold. Remember the first iPhones? The 8-gigabyte models cost $599. A few months later they cost $399. Now they're paperweights. The average middle-class American earns maybe $16 an hour after taxes. So if you save, say, $150 on a product, that's more than nine hours' extra work. Of course, if you love your job so much you like putting in an extra day for free, go ahead.

2. It's going to be better next year.
The next iPad will have new features—allegedly including video conferencing and maybe a better screen. This year's model will be so over. When Steve Jobs unveiled the second iPhone in 2008 he actually made fun of the slow first model—the same product that he had hailed a year earlier as the eighth wonder of the world. The audience yukked it up. Me? I'm not a fan of buying a product for $500 from a guy who's going to deride it a few months later.

3. Competitors are coming.
Right now the iPad has just one serious rival, the Samsung Galaxy Tab. So no wonder it's doing so well. But all that will change in just a few months. New tablets, many running on the Android platform, are expected to hit the market as soon as March. These will give you a much wider choice of size, style and operating system. And when these companies duke it out for market share, you know you'll be able to get a deal. So why would I buy now?

How cell phones are changing shopping

More and more people are doing their Christmas shopping on their cell phones.

Shopping on cellphones and portable tablet computers like iPads accounted for about 5 percent of online sales in November, while last year mobile shopping sales were too insignificant to measure, according to Coremetrics, an e-commerce measurement service.

“There were early adopters last year, but it’s absolutely real this year,” said Kelly O’Neill, director of industry marketing for ATG, which provides online and mobile commerce technology to retailers like Best Buy and J. C. Penney. And mobile shoppers are buying high-ticket items like diamond rings and cars, not just virtual goods and ring tones. 

EBay is so convinced of the future of mobile phone shopping that on Wednesday it acquired Critical Path Software, a mobile phone app developer, to speed its move into this new arena. 

An interesting reference to Best Buy, because that company and similar stores aren't doing very well.

The challenges faced by electronics stores were highlighted this week when Best Buy, the world’s largest consumer electronics retailer in revenue, reported that third-quarter net income fell 4.4 percent, to $217 million, and sales fell 1.1 percent, to $11.9 billion. Sales at stores open for more than a year declined 5 percent. 

“The market, which is already weak, is dramatically shifting away from stores and toward online,” said Colin A. McGranahan, a senior analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Company.
Online sales in the United States are forecast to account for 20 percent of total consumer electronics sales of $250 billion by the end of this year. 

This doesn't include shoppers using their phones to check prices in stores.

Marketers must contend with shoppers who can use their smartphones inside stores to check whether the specials are really so special, and if the rest of the merchandise is reasonably priced.

"The retailer's advantage has been eroded," says Greg Girard of consultancy IDC Retail Insights, which recently found that roughly 45% of customers with smartphones had used them to perform due diligence on a store's prices. "The four walls of the store have become porous."

Power to the people.

Your smart phone and your car

More evidence that smart phones are taking over tasks previously performed by other devices -- car diagnosis apps.

Here's one for the iPhone, the 2340 KIWI Wifi. The manufacturer's description:

• KIWI Wifi turns your iPhone in to a powerful automotive tool
• Will check for engine diagnostic codes, when your "check engine" light become illuminated you can view and reset the code
• Easy installation, simply plugs into OBDII port and will mount virtually anywhere in your vehicle
• Allows you to view sensor data such as engine RPM, vehicle speed, coolant temperature and throttle position
• MPG gauges, basic engine sensors, check engine scan tool, trip computer

PLX Devices KIWI Wifi is a plug and play wireless device measuring only 2.75 x 1.25 x 0.6 inch. KIWI wifi comes attached with a 6 feet OBDII cable for easy installation. It also comes included with a power switch built-in to prevent the need to constantly disconnect your unit from the OBDII port. This wireless device is compatible with 1996 and later vehicles. Connecting to your iPhone / iPod touch is made by 802.11 a/b/g connection in adHoc mode.

And here's one for Droid phones.

Here come the rabbit ears ... and the FCC

Some viewers who have decided that they are no longer willing or able to pay for cable or satellite service, including younger ones, are buying antennas and tuning in to a surprising number of free broadcast channels, The New York Times reports.

These often become part of a video diet that includes the fast-growing menu of options available online.
The antenna reception has also led many of these converts to discover — or rediscover — the frustration of weak and spotty signals. But its fans argue that it is tough to beat the price.

From April to September, cable and satellite companies had a net loss of about 330,000 customers. Craig Moffett, a longtime cable analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein, said the consensus of the industry executives he had talked to was that most of these so-called cord-cutters were turning to over-the-air TV. “It looks like they’re leaving for the antenna,” he said.  

Another big change is the rise of Internet video, which can ease the pain of losing favorite cable channels. Not so fast, Sparky.

As details emerge about the Federal Communications Commission's controversial proposal for regulating Internet providers, a provision that would allow companies to bill customers for how much they surf the Web is drawing special scrutiny. 

Analysts say pay-as-you-go Internet access could put the brakes on the burgeoning online video industry, handing a victory to cable and satellite TV providers. 

What's up with that. Glenn Reynolds muses, "A cynic would see this as a payback to the Big Media folks who backed Obama so . . . intensively in 2008."

Chrome vs Firefox

I read this article the other door and decided to give Google's browser, Chrome, a shot. I'd tried it once before but there was enough unfamiliarity to keep me with Firefox.

This time I discovered something the article touted: speed. It is noticeably faster.

Firefox has made leaps and bounds in speed over the past few years, and despite coming out on top in memory use in the last round of tests, Firefox has one very big problem: Firefox users think Firefox is growing progressively slower and more bloated, and at the end of the day, user perception is always more important than all the speed tests in the world.

I can attest to this: When I use Chrome, it feels faster, and that's all that matters. I'd attribute that feeling to more than just interface design (though I wouldn't be surprised if Chrome's sleeker design does color my perception, too). At the end of the day, I want the browser that's going to deliver web sites and information quickly and pain-free. The extensions and other niceties are just jelly; the browser needs to be fast and serviceable before the other stuff really matters. For users who want speed, functionality, and extensibility, Chrome is turning a lot of eyes from Firefox.

I like the auto-fill in the address bar. And I was able to quickly locate Delicious buttons, which I use all day long.

How to deal with tech support

(Thanks, Nick)

Here come the tablets and smart phones

The research firm IDC predicts that in 2011, computing’s third major technology wave will become mainstream, when computers held in one’s hand — smartphones and tablets — really take over and start putting personal computers in the rearview mirror.

Next year there will be 330 million smartphones sold worldwide and 42 million media tablets. Tablet sales are expected to more than double next year, and to keep climbing.

“The PC-centric era is over,” the IDC report says. Within 18 months, it forecasts, non-PC devices capable of running software applications will outsell PCs. In tablets, IDC adds, Apple’s iPad will remain the leader, but lower-cost tablets will begin making inroads, especially as demand for tablets really takes off in emerging markets.

Mainstream adoption, according to IDC, is when a technology moves well beyond 15 percent or so of the market. In 2011, for example, IDC predicts half of the 2.1 billion people who regularly use the Internet will do so using non-PC devices.

Best apps for your Android phone

A few weeks ago I posted a suggested list of the best apps for the iPhone. Here is Bob Tedeschi's list of apps for the Android. I've selected the ones I like. Check the whole list.

GOOGLE SHOPPER (FREE) This app can save you hundreds of dollars by helping you find better prices nearby or online. Scan a bar code and the app takes it from there. If the scan doesn’t work, you can speak the product’s name and the app finds the product. 

GOOGLE SKY MAP (FREE) Some serious eye candy that you’ll want to activate on the next cloudless night. Point your device toward the heavens and Sky Map puts a label on every celestial body you see — and some you can’t.

SOUNDHOUND (FREE AND $5) It’s Android’s best showoff app after Sky Map. Open SoundHound and it identifies nearly any song — even some you hum. It also finds lyrics and YouTube videos of song performances. The $5 version lets you identify an unlimited number of tunes. Users of the free version get five songs a month. 

EVERNOTE (FREE) Can’t afford a personal assistant? This will help. Evernote is a mobile notepad that synchronizes with desktop and browser software (also free). Use your smartphone to take a photo, record a voice memo or jot down a note, and the next time you open Evernote on your desktop computer, your mobile notes appear (and vice versa). The free version stores a fair amount of information, but $45 a year buys unlimited storage.

QUICKOFFICE MOBILE SUITE ($10) You can read Word, Excel or Powerpoint documents on an Android phone, but you can’t edit them without dedicated apps. Quickoffice is, so far, the best of these apps. It lets you create documents in a pinch, but the app’s strength is letting you get bits of work done away from the office. 

Among his honorable mentions is one I'd find very useful: FlightTrack ($5: track any flight and get delay forecasts, seat suggestions and gate information).

Here's a mega list of recommended apps.